Predictive Health Research: What Isn't It?

If you're a regular reader of this blog, if you receive PredictER News Brief, if you have attended any PredictER event; you've probably encountered definitions of "predictive health research". But, let's pretend you're not a regular PredictER Blog reader; imagine that! You might wonder … What's the big deal; aren't all medical professionals predicting health outcomes? Isn't most medical research conducted with the hope of better predicting health outcomes? Well, you're not alone. These are questions I regularly entertain when updating PredictER's shared headlines (see the panel on the right) or when adding items to PredictER's del.icio.us and CiteULike accounts. In fact, two recent news items seemed to be begging to stretch the scope beyond the typically featured genetic and neuroimaging research. First, on the 30^th of October, The Washington Post reported "Quality of Life Predicts Lung Cancer Survival". The story relays the news of recent cancer research findings and quotes the lead author, Dr. Nicos Nicolaou of the Fox Chase Cancer Center in Philadelphia:

"In the past, we've considered the stage of disease or tumor size along with other empirical data to predict how long a patient will survive, but now we know quality of life is a critical factor in determining survival".

The second story, also relaying research news on "survival" factors, appeared Wednesday in MedPage Today: "Mathematical Index Simplifies Survival Prediction After Liver Grafts". In the November 7^th report, Judith Groch writes:

The researchers [Michael L. Volk and colleagues at the University of Michigan] said that the modified comorbidity index predicted liver transplant survival as well or better than other available models that typically use recipient characteristics such as age, race, BMI, and etiology of liver disease. … Until now, "we have considered comorbidities in an informal way when deciding whether to put patients on the list for transplant, but nobody has ever quantified the impact of comorbidities on post-transplant survival," Dr. Volk said.

Sounds "predictive" to me, but is it relevant to PredictER? I can't say "no", but I have to admit that PredictER Blog has focused on research emphasizing long-term prediction … tests and methods revealing disease years (if not decades) prior to the onset of symptoms. This "predictive" research often requires the latest developments in research knowledge and technology; it also introduces a new emphasis on some familiar ethical and social issues. When research requires biobanks and databases for the collection of tissue samples and genetic data for potentially long-term and unexpected use, the task of assuring subject privacy, dignity, and autonomy faces new challenges. These challenges are multiplied when biobanks are coupled with longitudinal access to personal medical records. Thus, while reserving the opportunity to be inclusive, the interests of PredictER Blog can be distinguished from the "predictive" aspects of all biomedical research (exemplified by the Nicolaou and Volk studies) by a measure of degrees. PredictER Blog is interested in research aims marked by dramatic increase in the power and accuracy of health "prediction", the requisite ethical protections, and the much anticipated benefits ... a more personal "personalized medicine".

Related research:

Volk ML, Hernandez JC, Lok AS, Marrero JA. 2007. Modified Charlson Comorbidity Index for predicting survival after liver transplantation. Liver Transplantation. Volume 13, Issue 11 , Pages 1515 - 1520. [doi: 10.1002/lt.21172]

Nicolaou N, Moughan J, Sarna L, Langer C, Werner-Wasik M, Komaki R, Machtay M, Wasserman T, Bruner D, Movsas B. 2007. Quality of Life (QOL) Supercedes the Classic Predictors of Survival in Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC): An Analysis of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) 9801. International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics. Volume 69, Issue 3, Pages S58-S59. [doi:10.1016/j.ijrobp.2007.07.107]